Where are we headed?

I've been using Facebook for about two and a half years. I resisted joining for a while, but relented when I realized that there were a lot of other ukulele players on Facebook. Now, I find it invaluable in knowing what's happening.

Upon joining Facebook, I was impressed with the friend recommendations. They were all spot on! Later, I realized that Facebook must have already been building up a profile of my public activities on the internet prior to my joining.

Facebook became so popular since we could connect so easily with people. For example, I found 18 of my 28 first cousins. But now that we've all been using this on-line social networking thing for years, where are we now?

Over the past half year, I've reduced my Facebook activities. I had concerns over Facebook's ability to respect our privacy settings. Also, back in the Fall, Facebook made some drastic changes to the look and feel of the web site. And changes are still happening. In some cases, it took me hours to reconfigure my settings. And weeks for Facebook to fix the bugs preventing those settings from working properly.

But now, where are we headed with on-line social media? First, I think the novelty of Facebook has worn off for many of us. We just don't have to look at all the pictures of our friends grand-kids. And as we increase our lists of "friends", wading through the volume of postings becomes more and more of an effort.

Second, Facebook has given us the option to view "Top Stories". But how do they decide what's important to us? Perhaps they have some secret algorithm that helps them decide. But the top stories they give me are not the things I consider most important. The thing about Facebook is that, for the most part, the stories posted on my news feed are not important. Few are truly "Top" stories. The vast majority are all pretty much equally unimportant. And yet, in spite of complaints about the futility of "Top Stories", Facebook still sees value in the whole concept. It seems like they really want to keep the ability to decide what we should see. As Facebook moves towards its expected IPO, it seems pretty clear that Facebook will decide that we should see the messages of its paying advertisers.

What about Google Plus? Well, it's a different sort of on-line social networking experience. I think it's a good start at implementing on-line networking. Although they could have capitalized on Facebook's recent missteps, I've been disappointed with the pace of Google Plus development. Google's strength is in all their different components, such as Gmail, Youtube, and Calendar. By integrating them all together in effective ways, they could have a real powerhouse on-line networking platform. But where are all the good interconnections?

We're clearly in the middle of a shift. Perhaps Google is trying to figure out where we're going? Or perhaps Google is busy implementing that shift? Many have argued that 2012 will be the year of the tablet computer. While many of us still use desktop machines, portable devices are clearly becoming more important. As tablets drop in price over 2012, more and more of us will be using them. I confess, I don't have one now. But I do expect to buy one during the coming year. They're just too useful to ignore. And a lot of fun too.

And so, while Facebook may have won the current war over on-line social networking, smart companies will do what they can to change the battleground. With big earnings expected, Facebook can be expected to play it safe, doing what they can do satisfy their investors and advertisers. Which means we'll have to look elsewhere to find real innovation.

Cheers! Hans